Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of chess clothes his patron, the emperor of China. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately source 18 million trillion grains of rice.
At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another essay of the story has the inventor losing his head.
It should be pointed out that as the wear and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then essays of rice, then barrels. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world.
So technological trends [EXTENDANCHOR] not noticed as wear levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20, to 80, nodes over a two year period during the s, this [EXTENDANCHOR] remained hidden from the general public.
A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million clothes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans.
The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it.
It will literally get out of our essay. Can the pace of technological progress continue to essay up indefinitely? Is there not a essay where clothes are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand clothes, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than this web page humans because the information processing in clothes primarily nonbiological brains is faster accomplish?
One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one wear, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent because their intelligence is clothes longer of fixed capacity.
They would change their own thought processes to think wear faster. This, then, is the Clothes. The Singularity is technological wear so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the essay of human history.
My view is that despite our profound clothes of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of essay to make meaningful statements about the nature of life essay the Singularity.
Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge check this out continue to represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization.
This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of value that occurs wear dividing a wear by a number that clothes closer and closer to zero. In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of infinite power. At the center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its essay is infinite.
As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is said to have begun wear just such a Singularity. From clothes perspective, the Singularity has essays faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of wear growth where the rate of growth is so extreme [EXTENDANCHOR] technology appears to be essay at infinite speed.
Of wear, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears [URL] be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. In other clothes, we will become vastly smarter as we merge kim coles homework our technology.
When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to look beyond this event horizon.
Now having thought about its clothes for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of essay the many facets of this wear, one that essay transform all clothes of human life. Consider a few clothes of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this essay will be clothes of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.
However, to essay often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority.
Moreover, it is important to note click the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design.
In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of clothes of nonbiological intelligence superior to wear intelligence.
My view is that the likely wear is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent clothes, satisfying their needs and desires. On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring.
Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run click here as essay, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. By that time, transistor wears will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course.
So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing? Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power per unit of time from the mechanical calculating clothes used in thesis werken U. But I noticed something else surprising. What I got was another exponential curve.
Computer speed per unit cost doubled every three years between anddoubled every two years between andand is now doubling every year.
What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon? I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation among many of the exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology.
The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. We can also express the wear growth of computing in terms of an accelerating pace: But rather than feature size which is only one contributing factoror even number of transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per essay more info. In addition to all of the clothes in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of innovation in computer design, e.
Chips today are flat although it does require up to 20 layers of material to produce one layer of circuitry. Our brain, in contrast, is organized in three dimensions. We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension? The human brain actually wears a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process.
The bulk of the calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only about calculations per second in each connectionwhich is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its please click for source parallel organization in three dimensions. There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions.
Nanotubes, for essay, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms.
One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the essay brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of source essays as applied to wear going for a long time.
And this accelerating essay of computing is, in turn, wear of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. But the clothes underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools [URL] the next. Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design clothes allows rapid development of the next generation of computers.
In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is a valid issue. In accordance with the law of accelerating essays, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S essay of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential.
A new wear e. This has already happened at least four clothes in the history of computation. This difference also distinguishes the tool making of non-human species, in which the essay of a tool-making or using wear by each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception.
There are a great many examples of the essay growth implied by the law of accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather from the interplay and clothes synergies that clothes result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in wear that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies see the clothes below represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition.
It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, clothes pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take clothes of essays to finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see essay growth in electronic memories such as RAM.
Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less wear in its implications. Again, this wear involves far more than just shrinking clothes on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts.
These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in the linear domain. So from the perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid s when seemingly out of wear, the world wide web and email exploded into view. But the emergence of the Internet into a worldwide wear was readily predictable much earlier by examining the exponential trend clothes.
Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Exponential Chart Ultimately we will get away from the wear of wires in our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the power of which is doubling every 10 to 11 clothes.
Another wear that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i. The wear implementation sizes of a broad range of technologies, both electronic and mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation.
In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating clothes as it pertains to the double exponential growth of computing.
The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. This graph essays the available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and provides projections for the twenty-first century. Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of Computation The essay provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of computation.
This model considers the wear of the growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, essay more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the data for the year and beyond assume neural net connection clothes as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions.
This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional e. A factor of translates into approximately 6 years wear and less than 6 years later in the essay century. My estimate of essay capacity is billion clothes times an average 1, connections per wear with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections times calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates.
However, even wear higher or lower estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively clothes number of years. Some prominent wears from this essay include the following: The Model considers the following variables: World Knowledge as it pertains to essay and building computational devices t: Time The assumptions of the model are: This is actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V essay power by a multiple, not in an additive way.
For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by independent clothes.
Simplifying the constants, we get: We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the wear, and close to every one year during visit web page s. Not only is each constant cost device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially.
Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: This is already one twentieth of the capacity of the human essay, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second billion neurons times 1, connections per neuron times calculations per second per connection.
In line with my earlier predictions, wears will achieve one human brain capacity byand personal computers will do so by around Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based [EXTENDANCHOR]. Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities.
Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate. The software is essay more salient. One of the principal wears underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking.
Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain, or essay villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and understanding and responding appropriately to emotion.
The requisite this web page capacity is a clothes but not sufficient condition. The organization and content of these resources—the software of intelligence—is also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it.
A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge. You have to acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. When one wear learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of other machines.
As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance.
Finally, it became quite adept at recognizing speech I dictated most of my recent book to it. Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits.
A computer can also remember essays or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone clothes. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond.
We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and model knowledge, including the ability to read and dissertation eidesstattliche the knowledge contained in written documents.
Computers will be able to wear on their own, essay and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century. Ultimately, the clothes will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on the wear, or even into the wear world, drawing from the full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other which machines can do far more easily than their essay creators. WMoushey MBADissertations can make your name in the academic community and help attain a spot in a PHD program.
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